The war between the US and the North Korea can start any moment and the key question is whether war can be avoided?
While the dispute between the United States and North Korea is rampant, the key question is whether war can be avoided. There are two different views on President Donald Trump’s verbal attacks on dictator Kim Jong- or: will end in a broad-scale war or persuade Pyongyang to quit his nuclear program.
Over the past few months, Pyongyang tested their two intercontinental ballistic missiles, carried out an underground explosion of hydrogen bombs, and fired a mid-range missile across northern Japan. US experts believe that North Korea only needs one year to build a nuclear balloon that can withstand the tremendous heat of an intercontinental ballistic missile and reach the US mainland. Unlike Israel, India, and Pakistan, North Korea wants nuclear weapons not only to deflect regional rivals, but to gain the ability to shoot its arhirivals – the United States.
Pyongyang has been testing missiles for years and developing a nuclear program, but experts estimate that any threat to the continental United States has been decades away. Officials from several US administrations and neighboring China have failed to convince Pyongyang to stop or freeze that program, but they thought they still had enough time. As North Korea is getting closer to success, the danger has increased dramatically and the pressure on Trump is finally overcoming the immediate threat. Extensive financial and economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the UN on Pyongyang are unlikely to produce results, primarily because North Korea has developed a system of avoiding sanctions. After carrying out six nuclear tests, the next step in Pyongyang could be a demonstration of the launch of nuclear warheads on intercontinental missiles. The escalating conflict now has two possible outcomes: bilateral talks and nuclear freezing or wide-scale warfare.
The current round of threat between Kim and Trump, as the rocket testing continues, can not last forever. In an optimistic solution, heavy pressure from Washington leads Kim to give up nuclear testing and missile missiles, and Trump agrees to negotiations that would allow Pyongyang to get some concessions and thus eliminate immediate danger to the United States. In such a scenario, both parties can claim to have achieved a greater part of their interest. The North Korean regime could seek different benefits in exchange for nuclear freezing. This could include a peace agreement on the Korean peninsula that would give Kim the legitimacy of the dynasty; the US’s commitment to not seek a change of regime if Pyongyang stops threatening the United States and international economic development funds. Washington, meanwhile, could talk about the success of stopping the Pyongyang nuclear program.
Quite understandably, the US will not withdraw its 38,000 troops from South Korea, nor leave its allies; is also unlikely to reduce his military presence in Japan. Pyongyang remains committed to the idea of unifying two Koreas under their own conditions and continues to threaten the southern neighbor with his massive conventional military force. Besides, no one can be sure that long nuclear fever will survive because Kim’s regime can not be trusted. In the most scenic scenario we could find ourselves on the verge of wide-scale war either due to erroneous estimation, either by intent.
Kim could shoot at an American military aircraft patroling near Korea. Or his rocket, with or without a nuclear balloon, could accidentally hit the territory of the United States or an ally like Japan. That would promptly prompt the US military response. The Pentagon has made plans for more military options against North Korea. They include precision air strikes on rocket and launch sites, although most are under the ground or in mountain caves. It can also be decided to send special units to blow up military installations or key people in the regime.
Anyway, there is no ideal or simple military option because the American attack would trigger a massive North Korean bombing of Seoul, which is only 50 kilometers from the border. Pyongyang grouped artillery and tanks along the border and their flaming power could kill tens of thousands of civilians before the US and South Korean forces manage to respond effectively. Kim thinks the possibility of mass murder will stop Washington, though they are less secure with Trump than with any previous president. In his recent UN speech, Trump has threatened to totally destroy North if the United States is forced to defend itself or one of its allies.
The next step in Pjongjang in escalating the conflict could be to test a hydrogen bomb with atmospheric nuclear detonation. The second option would be to launch the Hwasong-14 missile across Japan and the Pacific. The goal would be to show that Kim could reach the American territory – either Guam, Hawaii or Alaska. Since most US missile defense systems are still in the early stages of testing, it can not be argued with certainty that the North Korean intercontinental missile would be demolished. The risk of such a nuclear test is immutable. If the projectile explodes ahead of time, above Japan, the result would almost certainly be an American nuclear attack on North Korea. Trump would not have a choice because he should not show himself as a president who is pulled by the act of aggression.
This article was originally published on the Trump News.